Our Wall Street week ahead article has been engineered to serve as a reference you can look back upon all week long to keep ahead of the economic and corporate news flow.
After last week's
geopolitical news flow domination, this week offers several individual themes for each specific day. The President's week, however, will be geared toward preparing the Middle East for the near-term therapy he likely has in mind for Iran. He'll be sure to mix that into the conversation with his Israeli counterpart in between the fireworks and the champagne, as Israel celebrates its 60 year anniversary. Five decades have passed, and not a peaceful day among them it seems.
A Choice This Time. But Which One is Really Correct?
Between John McCain and apparently Barak Obama, it looks like Americans might have a distinct choice to make about Middle Eastern policy. But, is there really a choice, because we suspect the scenario playing itself out will not allow much free play between potential presidential actions. Also, McCain's experience with war, and his wisdom, might actually lead him to make the better-advised decisions. Anyway, we expect GW and Israel to make the important Iranian decision
for the incoming president, so it's a non-factor.
Guess what,
The Greek, now an Independent with Republican leanings, is actually bending toward McCain, despite our concern that he may have war in his genes at this point. Obama may promise change, but we remain concerned with the risk related to
not dealing with Iran now. Change for a peaceful future is a great ideology, but
Iran is too far progressed for us to bank on its changing its present direction.
In an ironic twist, it turns out McCain is actually less ballistic than Hillary Clinton. Jest we may, but we completely agree with Hillary's position on Iran. The threat of annihilation is not taken seriously in Iran, and it plainly exists. So, if we would do it, we need them to know we would. That might just prevent the next 9/11, which could be a thousand times worse than the
wake up call of nearly seven years ago.
As the market continues to wrestle with whether the worst is really over, or the flow of financial reports with ongoing asset write-downs and continued share dilution signal a need to discount stocks further, let's take a look at the week ahead.
The Week Ahead
What happens to stocks this week will likely have as much to do with how
geopolitical issues develop as it will with economic data flow. However, there are three key economic reports that could still have an impact.
Monday - Theme-less
A dearth of economic data greets investors on Monday. Lending to the abyss of information, markets in Hong Kong, South Korea and parts of Europe, including France and Germany, will be closed due to religious holidays.
The earnings schedule offers news from Sprint Nextel (
NYSE: S), Fluor (
NYSE: FLR), MBIA (
NYSE: MBI), Cousins Properties (
NYSE: CUZ), Tetra Tech (
NYSE: TTI), InVentiv Health (
Nasdaq: VTIV), PMI Group (
NYSE: PMI), 4Kids Entertainment (
NYSE: KDE), A.C. Moore Arts & Crafts (
Nasdaq: ACMR), Akorn (
Nasdaq: AKRX), Answers Corp. (
Nasdaq: ANSW), ActivIdentity (
Nasdaq: ACTI), American Technology Corp. (
Nasdaq: ATCO), Ark Restaurants (
Nasdaq: ARKR), Arqule (
Nasdaq: ARQL), Artes Medical (
Nasdaq: ARTE), Bally Technologies (
NYSE: BYI), Basin Water (
Nasdaq: BWTR), Building Materials Holding (
NYSE: BLG), Calpine (
NYSE: CPN), Carmike Cinemas (Nasdaq: CKEK), Century Casinos (
Nasdaq: CNTY), Charter (
Nasdaq: CHTR), Clearwire (
Nasdaq: CLWR), Coeur d'Alene Mines (
NYSE: CDE), Cogent (
Nasdaq: COGT), Doral Financial (
NYSE: DRL), Dynex Capital (
NYSE: DX), Emmis Communications (
Nasdaq: EMMS), Energy Solutions (
NYSE: ES), GeoResources (
Nasdaq: GEOI), Hecla Mining (
NYSE: HL), Holly (
NYSE: HOC), HSBC Finance (
NYSE: HTB), IMAX (
Nasdaq: IMAX), Imperial Sugar (
Nasdaq: IPSU), IndyMac Bancorp (
NYSE: IMB), JA Solar (
Nasdaq: JASO), Kenexa (
Nasdaq: KNXA), Knology (
Nasdaq: KNOL), LDK Solar (
NYSE: LDK), McDermott Int'l (
NYSE: MDR), Medarex (
Nasdaq: MEDX), Miller Industries (
NYSE: MLR), MTR Gaming (
Nasdaq: MNTG), MIVA Inc. (
Nasdaq: MIVA), Nanogen (
Nasdaq: NGEN), Nelnet (
NYSE: NNI), Neurobiological Technologies (
Nasdaq: NTII), Orleans Homebuilders (
AMEX: OHB), PetMed Express (
Nasdaq: PETS), Petrobras (
NYSE: PBR), Radian Group (
NYSE: RDN), Sirius Satellite (
Nasdaq: SIRI), Standard Pacific (
NYSE: SPF), Stifel Financial (
NYSE: SF), Tercica (
Nasdaq: TRCA), Valspar (
NYSE: VAL) and XMSatellite Radio (
Nasdaq: XMSR).
Tuesday - Consumer Spending (Retail)
Tuesday's theme is certainly consumer spending, with a focus on retail. As usual, the International Council of Shopping Centers starts the day off with its weekly same-store sales report. Remember, last week surprised us with its further improvement that we speculated was likely weather related since the week-to-week change was far different than the year-over-year improvement. Looking back, year-over-year growth of 2.3% compared to a week-to-week
decline of 0.2%. Therefore, we would expect this week's year-to-year change to prove more cohesive with recent strife in the space.
Well, at 8:30 our speculation will no longer be necessary, as April's aggregate retail sales are reported. Bloomberg's consensus of economists forecasts a month-to-month decrease of 0.1%, and a 0.3% increase when excluding autos. In March, sales including autos increased 0.2%, rising 0.1% without.
Last week, individual retailers noted chain store sales, and
"the cheaper the better" theme played on. Discounters like Wal-Mart (
NYSE: WMT), Costco (
Nasdaq: COST) and TJX Cos. (
NYSE: TJX) continued to outperform department stores and mall-based retailers like JC Penney (
NYSE: JCP), Nordstrom (
NYSE: JWN), The Limited (
NYSE: LTD) and The Gap (
NYSE: GPS).
We hope you noted that
"The Greek" beat the much more famous and well-paid Bob Dole on The Gap call. When Bob recommended GPS recently on CNBC, we came out critical of the pick. Seems to us Bob's wife must be shopping at an extraordinary location atypical of GPS' overall game.
Import and Export Prices are set for 8:30 a.m. release, with consensus expectations looking for an April increase in import prices of 1.7%. Energy pricing always plays a big role here, and we see no exception this time around, or the next for that matter.
March Business Inventories are scheduled for 10:00, with expectations for a 0.5% increase. That's slightly less than in recent months, but remember, it's not inventories in isolation that matter, but inventories-to-sales. Wholesale inventories were reported last week, and they decreased 0.1%, which was good to see.
Presidential primaries run off in West Virginia and Nebraska. Finally, Fed men Ben Bernanke and Richard Fisher are scheduled to find microphone's on Tuesday, and that's always fun!
Tuesday's earnings include Wal-Mart (
NYSE: WMT), Applied Materials (
Nasdaq: AMAT), Cameco (
NYSE: CCJ), Canadian Solar (
Nasdaq: CSIQ), Electronic Arts (
Nasdaq: ERTS), Toll Brothers (
NYSE: TOL), Fossil (
Nasdaq: FOSL), Hill-Rom Holdings (
NYSE: HRC), Liz Claiborne (
NYSE: LIZ), American Apparel (NYSE: APP), American Science & Engineering (
Nasdaq: ASEI), Dish Network (
Nasdaq: DISH), Echostar (
Nasdaq: SATS), Employers Holdings (
NYSE: EIG), Fortress Int'l Group (
Nasdaq: FIGI), GigaMedia (
Nasdaq: GIGM), Given Imaging (
Nasdaq: GIVN), Gushan Environmental Energy (
NYSE: GU), Hana Biosciences (Nasdaq: HANB), Helen of Troy (
Nasdaq: HELE), Hitachi Limited (
NYSE: HIT), Icahn Enterprises (
NYSE: IEP), KEMET (
NYSE: KEM), Kubota (
NYSE: KUB), Nissan Motors (
Nasdaq: NSANY), Opnet Technologies (
Nasdaq: OPNT), Palatin Technologies (
AMEX: PTN), Pan American Silver (
Nasdaq: PAAS), Paragon Technologies (
AMEX: PTG), Park-Ohio Holdings (
Nasdaq: PKOH), Photronics (
Nasdaq: PLAB), Repsol YPF (
NYSE: REP), Rubio's Restaurants (
Nasdaq: RUBO), Russ Berrie (
NYSE: RUS), SatCon Technology (
Nasdaq: SATC), SenoRx (
Nasdaq: SENO), Singapore Airlines (
Nasdaq: SINGF.PK), Societe Generale (Paris: GLE.PA), StatoilHydro (
NYSE: STO), Supreme Industries (NYSE: STS), TJX Cos. (
NYSE: TJX), US Shipping Partners (
NYSE: USS), Vector Group (
NYSE: VGR), Verasun (
NYSE: VSE) and Whole Foods Market (
Nasdaq: WFMI).
Wednesday - Inflation
Wednesday's theme is "inflation" with important consumer price and oil information on tap. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of April is expected to show prices increased 0.3% on the headline, month-to-month, and 0.2% on Core CPI, or after subtracting out food and energy price change (delusional CPI might be more like it). This month's forecast perfectly matches last month's actual change, and I guess lack of deterioration is a good thing?.. Bernanke keeps telling us prices will moderate though.
EIA Petroleum Status is on tap for 10:30 release, and last week noted a build of 5.7 million barrels of oil inventory. What's more important this week is if Hezbollah backs off in Lebanon, if The Wall Street Journal report on Hugo Chavez's aid to Colombian rebels proves poorly researched, and if Iran decides to build wind farms instead of nuclear plants...
The Mortgage Bankers' Association is also on the slate as usual for Wednesday. Overseas, President Bush meets with his Israeli counterpart in Jerusalem, marking the 60th anniversary of the nation's founding.
Wednesday's earnings schedule includes Deere (
NYSE: DE), Freddie Mac (
NYSE: FRE), Agilent Technologies (
NYSE: A), Macy's (
NYSE: M), Jack-In-The-Box (
NYSE: JBX), Acxiom (
Nasdaq: ACXM), Akorn Int'l (
NYSE: ATV), Amtech (
Nasdaq: ASYS), ArcelorMittal (
NYSE: MT), Audiovoxx (
Nasdaq: VOXX), Brocade Communications (
Nasdaq: BRCD), CAE (
NYSE: CGT), China Digital TV (
NYSE: STV), CGGVeritas (
NYSE: CGV), Compugen (
Nasdaq: CGEN), Comstock Homebuilding (Nasdaq: CHGI), Dana Holding (
NYSE: DAN), Diana Shipping (
NYSE: DSX), Double Hull Tankers (
NYSE: DHT), Intelli-Check (NYSE: IDN), Interleukin Genetics (NYSE: ILI), Media Sciences Int'l (
Nasdaq: MSII), Memory Pharmaceuticals (
Nasdaq: MEMY), NICE Systems (
Nasdaq: NICE), O'Charley's (
Nasdaq: CHUX), Pioneer Behavioral Health (NYSE: PHC), Protection One (
Nasdaq: PONE), ReneSola (
NYSE: SOL), Salary.com (
Nasdaq: SLRY), Sina (
Nasdaq: SINA), Sony (
NYSE: SNE), Spartan Stores (
Nasdaq: SPTN), Stanley (
NYSE: SXE), Steak n' Shake (
NYSE: SNS), Synta Pharma (
Nasdaq: SNTA), Teekay Shipping (
NYSE: TK), Taseko Mines (
AMEX: TGB), Telefonica (
NYSE: TEF) and Vivendi (Paris: VIV.PA).
Thursday - Manufacturing
Thursday's theme is as clear cut as the two days preceding it, the state of manufacturing. Three separate reports will offer plenty of insight into how the guys who make things are doing. Leading off, the New York Federal Reserve will post its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for May at 8:30. The take on New York area manufacturing looks to show a state of limbo, with Bloomberg's consensus seeing a measure of 0.0, versus +0.6 last month.
In what looks to be a real treat, Industrial Production and the Philly Fed will follow that report up all before you've had your second cup of coffee (I know some of you will be on the third!). Consensus expectations for Philly area manufacturing see a reading of -20.0, compared to last month's -24.9. It's kind of sad really, the clarity in the fact that these expectations are most dependent upon the prior month result, rather than any solid gauge. Of course, the past is often the best forecaster of the near-term future, but I'm very sure from experience, that human weakness is at play here as well, and that's disappointing.
April Industrial Production is set for 9:15 reporting. Production is forecast to decrease 0.3%, compared to an increase of 0.3% in March. Capacity utilization is seen deteriorating to 80.1%, from 80.5%. The direction makes sense, but the intensity might be off; or could international demand for U.S. goods be enough to offset domestic softness in both durables and nondurables. The gauntlet has been tossed.
The auto industry has not been shy about posting cutbacks in production and noting its relevance to current demand. We've seen such moves from General Motors (
NYSE: GM), and Ford (
NYSE: F) is rumored to be considering putting its old Mercury line to bed. We say, good riddance! Companies should not fall in love with product lines, just as investors should not fall in love with stocks.
Thursday proves to be a busy day, with the regular Initial Weekly Jobless Claims Report also set for the early AM. This one almost religiously sees forecasts matched with prior week results, and almost always proves significantly off that estimate. Economists are looking for new benefits claims to have numbered 370,000 this week; that compares to 365K last week.
Treasury International Capital is also due before the market open. Foreign demand for long-term U.S. securities increased last month to $72.5 billion. The EIA reports on Natural Gas storage at its usual 10:30 a.m. time, just a week after Goldman Sachs (
NYSE: GS) added it to its list of energy spikes to fear in the future. Finally, in the afternoon, the National Association of Home Builders will release its Housing Market Index. As you might imagine, this has not offered a party atmosphere of late, and measured 20 at last reading, and through most of this year. Chairman Bernanke will also appear in Chicago, to discuss banking and credit market turmoil. Have some wine with that buffet of information.
Thursday's earnings include Hewlett-Packard (
NYSE: HPQ), Kohls (
NYSE: KSS), JC Penney (
NYSE: JCP), Autodesk (
Nasdaq: ADSK), Nordstrom (
NYSE: JWN), BMC Software (
NYSE: BMC), Urban Outfitters (
Nasdaq: URBN), Advance auto Parts (
NYSE: AAP), Compuware (
Nasdaq: CPWR), Mentor Corp. (
NYSE: MNT), Arctic Cat (
Nasdaq: ACAT), Blockbuster (
NYSE: BBI), China Precision Steel (
Nasdaq: CPSL), FreeSeas (
Nasdaq: FREE), Gilat Satellite (
Nasdaq: GILT), Irvine Sensors (
Nasdaq: IRSN), Modtech Holdings (
Nasdaq: MODT), National Grid (
NYSE: NGG), Noah Education (
NYSE: NED), Perceptron (
Nasdaq: PRCP), Prestige Brands (
NYSE: PBH), Quantum (
NYSE: QTM), The Blackstone Group (
NYSE: BX), UT Starcom (
Nasdaq: UTSI), Yingli Green Energy (
NYSE: YGE) and more.
Friday - Housing
After taking a breath following a busy Thursday, Friday offers a couple key data points. Housing is the theme for Friday. Treasury Secretary Paulson is scheduled to talk to few Congressmen on the topic in Washington. Recall, there's a bill working its way through Congress that the president has threatened to veto. Meanwhile, economists expect housing starts moderated even further, to a pace of 940,000 in April, from 947K in March.
The University of Michigan will update its Consumer Sentiment Index for May, and economists are looking for a still drab 62.5 measure. April sentiment was a robust 63.2 (that's sarcasm, we do that here on occasion).
While President Bush closes out his Middle Eastern themed week, some 60 government leaders have a nice weekend planned in Peru. We're looking forward to a possible round 2 between the royals of Spain and Hugo Chavez, or perhaps, a steel cage match between Chavez and the head of Colombia. You know they make unique bow ties over there...
Friday's earnings include Abercrombie & Fitch (
NYSE: ANF), Fairpoint Communications (
NYSE: FRP), Multi-Color Corp. (
Nasdaq: LABL) and Pinnacle Gas Resources (
Nasdaq: PINN). Please find our market commentary all week long at the site.
Please see our disclosure at the
Wall Street
Greek website.
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